Very few people in the bitcoin industry are willing to accept bitcoin cannot be understood. Human nature has come to a point where we cannot simply accept things as they are and instead want to believe there is a science behind all things.
Science has taught us over the years that all things have a cause and effect and that if you study things hard enough you can learn the causes to understand the effects they will have.
However human emotion, has no true cause and effect. Some days we wake up and we are happy as one can be, other days we wake up and are as miserable as one can be. Some days we feel like taking risks while other days we feel we need to be more cautious.
There is no logic to the madness of human emotion, though some still try to predict it and say there are factors involved.
You may hear terms like subconscious defines emotions based on things we don’t even know. You may hear it may relate to things that happen in dreams we can’t remember. The truth however is no one really knows why we act the way we do and why we have feelings the way we do.
The truth also is that it’s these human emotions mixed with crowd mentality that define the value of bitcoin – not events. This is why it is an impossible thing to predict.
Some may claim to have it figured out, but eventually they will get things wrong. There is no exact science to this.
Jamie Demon retraced his claims about bitcoin being a fraud and claims he regretted the statements back on Jan 8 yet the prices continue to plummet despite his change of heart.
The Chinese New Year has come and gone despite some claiming that was always the reason for bitcoins price drop, yet still bitcoin continued to fall for months after the fact.
People claimed bitcoin always falls at Christmas time, even though 3 and a half months later it was still falling.
People have speculated reason after reason as to why bitcoin was falling and people have speculated reason after reason as to why it would rise again, and all have been proven wrong.
Some have speculated news coverage as the reason, but news coverage painted bitcoin as a bubble through its entire 2017 value rise and it didn’t stop the currency. As far back as one can search news reports claimed bitcoin was a fraud and a scam and still it continued to rise and rise through 2017.
Speculations of financial experts were claiming bitcoin would see as much as $100,000 USD value before this year had ended.
Just last week speculations were coming out saying bitcoin would drop below $5000.
After yesterday’s 15% rise, more speculations saying bitcoin will see 35,000 USD as the prediction is the bear market is over.
Some claim the news of billionaire George Soros and Venrock getting involved with bitcoin has caused the latest increase in value.
No one knows the truth because media has not been successful in manipulating the prices to date. Whether some events seemingly match or or not the media has gotten it wrong more than they have gotten it right.
The industry based speculators have also gotten it wrong more than they have gotten it right.
Bitcoin is based on supply and demand, and as such, it will move in a herd mentality and no one really knows the events that spark these emotions within people.
No one knows why some predicted the fall to be harder than it was and were wrong nor why some have predicted the high would be greater than it is and were wrong.
Many famous and wealthy people have predicted the demise before and it continued to rise. Many other wall street investors have moved to bitcoin in times past and it did not cause sharp rising values.
One can speculate until the end of time and only sometimes will they be accurate.
Even now, people predict that this recent rise was the turning point and that bitcoin is once again back on the upward tick. However we have also seen upward ticks this year that didn’t last.
No one person can truly predict bitcoin. It has a life of its own based solely on human emotion and crowd mentality which cannot be predicted no matter the measure used nor the methodologies tried.